Question

Lou observes that if flight 409 is cancelled, then the manager could not possibly arrive in time for the meeting. But the flight was not cancelled. Therefore, Lou concludes, the manager will certainly be on time. Evelyn replies that even if Lou's premises are true, his argument is fallacious. And therefore, she adds, the manager will not arrive on time after all.

Which of the following is the strongest thing that we can properly say about this discussion?

• A. Evelyn is mistaken in thinking Lou's argument to be fallacious, and so her own conclusion is unwarranted.
• B. Evelyn is right about Lou's argument, but nevertheless her own conclusion is unwarranted.
• C. Since Evelyn is right about Lou's argument, her own conclusion is well supported.
• D. Since Evelyn is mistaken about Lou's argument, her own conclusion must be false.

Hint:

Separate the two claims in the passage: is Lou's argument actually invalid, and does that invalidity prove the opposite conclusion?

Answer 1

The Correct Option is B

Step 1: Lay out Lou's argument.
Lou's reasoning is: if the flight is cancelled, the manager cannot arrive in time. The flight was not cancelled. So the manager will be on time. This has the shape "if A then not B, not A, so B," which denies the antecedent, a well known fallacy. Not being cancelled only removes one reason for a delay, it does not rule out every other reason, like traffic or a missed connection.

Step 2: Check whether Evelyn is right to call this fallacious.
Since the argument form is invalid, Evelyn is correct that Lou's reasoning does not prove the manager will be on time.

Step 3: Check Evelyn's own conclusion.
Evelyn then claims the manager will NOT be on time. But showing that Lou's argument fails only means we cannot be sure the manager is on time, it does not prove the opposite. Evelyn has no separate evidence for lateness, so her conclusion is just as unsupported as Lou's was.

Step 4: Match this to the options.
Option A is wrong because Evelyn is right about the fallacy. Option C is wrong because being right about the fallacy does not support her further claim. Option D is wrong because Evelyn is not mistaken about the fallacy. Option B fits both parts correctly.

Final Answer:
Evelyn correctly spots the flaw in Lou's reasoning, but her own claim that the manager will be late does not follow from that either. \[ \boxed{\text{Option B}} \]