Question:
Directions for questions 37 to 41: Analyze the statements given and provide an appropriate answer for the questions that follow.
Prediction, the hallmark of natural sciences, appears to have been possible by reducing phenomena to mathematical expressions. Some social scientists also want the power to predict accurately and assume they ought to perform the same reduction. But this would be a mistake, it would neglect data that are not easily mathematized and thereby would only distort the social phenomena.
Which one of the following most accurately expresses the main conclusion of the argument?
Directions for questions 37 to 41: Analyze the statements given and provide an appropriate answer for the questions that follow.
Prediction, the hallmark of natural sciences, appears to have been possible by reducing phenomena to mathematical expressions. Some social scientists also want the power to predict accurately and assume they ought to perform the same reduction. But this would be a mistake, it would neglect data that are not easily mathematized and thereby would only distort the social phenomena.
Which one of the following most accurately expresses the main conclusion of the argument?
Prediction, the hallmark of natural sciences, appears to have been possible by reducing phenomena to mathematical expressions. Some social scientists also want the power to predict accurately and assume they ought to perform the same reduction. But this would be a mistake, it would neglect data that are not easily mathematized and thereby would only distort the social phenomena.
Which one of the following most accurately expresses the main conclusion of the argument?
Show Hint
Look for the signal phrase "But this would be a mistake", the sentence attached to it is the author's real conclusion, everything before it is background.
Updated On: Jul 13, 2026
- The social sciences do not have as much predictive power as the natural sciences.
- Mathematics plays a more important role in the natural sciences than it does in the social sciences.
- Phenomena in the social sciences should not be reduced to mathematical formulae.
- There is a need in the social sciences to improve the ability to predict.
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The Correct Option is C
Solution and Explanation
Step 1: Understanding the Question:
We must pick the sentence that best states the main conclusion of a short argument comparing prediction in natural science with prediction in social science.
Step 2: Key Formula or Approach:
Separate the premises, the facts and assumptions the passage lays out, from the conclusion, the author's own judgment. A phrase like "But this would be a mistake" is a strong signal word marking the author's stand, and whatever it is attached to is usually the conclusion.
Step 3: Detailed Explanation:
The passage first states two things as background: natural science predicts by turning phenomena into mathematical expressions, and some social scientists want that same predictive power and assume they should copy the same reduction.
Then comes the pivot: "But this would be a mistake." The word "this" refers back to performing the same mathematical reduction in the social sciences, and "mistake" is the author's judgment on it.
The rest of the sentence, that it would neglect data that are not easily mathematized and would only distort the social phenomena, gives the reason for that judgment, it supports the conclusion rather than being the conclusion itself.
So the author's real point is that social science phenomena should not be forced into mathematical formulae, which is exactly option 3.
Option 1 talks about social science having less predictive power than natural science. The passage never makes that comparison, it argues against a method, not about how much prediction social science can achieve.
Option 2 claims mathematics is more important in natural science than social science. This is closer to a background assumption than to what the author is arguing for.
Option 4 says social science needs to improve its ability to predict. This is the opposite of the author's stand, since the author is warning against chasing that kind of predictive precision through mathematical reduction.
Option 5, dropped in the folded version, said prediction is responsible for the success of natural science, that is a background idea taken for granted at the start of the passage, not the conclusion.
Step 4: Final Answer:
The main conclusion is that phenomena in the social sciences should not be reduced to mathematical formulae, option 3.
We must pick the sentence that best states the main conclusion of a short argument comparing prediction in natural science with prediction in social science.
Step 2: Key Formula or Approach:
Separate the premises, the facts and assumptions the passage lays out, from the conclusion, the author's own judgment. A phrase like "But this would be a mistake" is a strong signal word marking the author's stand, and whatever it is attached to is usually the conclusion.
Step 3: Detailed Explanation:
The passage first states two things as background: natural science predicts by turning phenomena into mathematical expressions, and some social scientists want that same predictive power and assume they should copy the same reduction.
Then comes the pivot: "But this would be a mistake." The word "this" refers back to performing the same mathematical reduction in the social sciences, and "mistake" is the author's judgment on it.
The rest of the sentence, that it would neglect data that are not easily mathematized and would only distort the social phenomena, gives the reason for that judgment, it supports the conclusion rather than being the conclusion itself.
So the author's real point is that social science phenomena should not be forced into mathematical formulae, which is exactly option 3.
Option 1 talks about social science having less predictive power than natural science. The passage never makes that comparison, it argues against a method, not about how much prediction social science can achieve.
Option 2 claims mathematics is more important in natural science than social science. This is closer to a background assumption than to what the author is arguing for.
Option 4 says social science needs to improve its ability to predict. This is the opposite of the author's stand, since the author is warning against chasing that kind of predictive precision through mathematical reduction.
Option 5, dropped in the folded version, said prediction is responsible for the success of natural science, that is a background idea taken for granted at the start of the passage, not the conclusion.
Step 4: Final Answer:
The main conclusion is that phenomena in the social sciences should not be reduced to mathematical formulae, option 3.
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