Question

A bird species has an annual survival probability of 0.30. While sampling the population of this species, the probability that any individual is captured in a given year is 0.40. A bird is captured, tagged, and released in Year one. The probability that it is re-captured in Year two is \(\underline{\hspace{0cm}}\) (Round off to two decimal places.)

Hint:

To calculate recapture probability, multiply the survival probability by the capture probability. This gives the likelihood of both events happening.

Answer 1

Correct Answer: 0.11

Step 1: Understand the concept of recapture probability.
The probability of recapture depends on two independent events: survival of the bird and the probability of capture. The problem clearly states that the bird survives with a probability of 0.30 and that there is a 0.40 chance that the bird is captured.

Step 2: Apply the formula.
To find the probability that the bird is recaptured, we multiply the probability of survival by the probability of capture: \[ P(\text{recaptured}) = P(\text{survival}) \times P(\text{capture}) = 0.30 \times 0.40 = 0.12. \]

Step 3: Conclusion.
Therefore, the probability that the bird is recaptured in Year two is \( 0.12 \).